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El Niño’s Effects Extend Beyond Tropics
Although the effects of El Niño are most concentrated in tropical regions, other areas will also experience the impact. For instance, the southwestern parts of the United States will receive more rainfall, while the northern parts of the country will get warmer. One positive effect of El Niño is reduced Atlantic Ocean hurricane activity.
El Niño’s Economic Impact on Tropical Countries
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Courtesy of Christopher Callahan
Tropical countries are often most economically vulnerable due to their proximity to El Niño and lower GDPs than European and other northern regions. For example, during the El Niño event of 1997-98, countries indicated in red on the map above experienced significant drops in GDP per capita. Agriculture vulnerable to rainfall changes contributes more to the GDP of low-income countries, which makes them more susceptible to weather changes. Subsistence farmers are most at risk of losing their livelihood and not being able to feed their families, especially in the absence of irrigation systems.
El Niño’s Impact on Low-Income Countries
Low-income nations usually lack safety nets compared to their economically developed counterparts. The US, for instance, has an extensive policy complex to protect farmers when they are affected due to weather shocks; this hardly applies to most low- and middle-income countries. According to University of Sydney agricultural economist David Ubilava, governments need to start planning international aid to low-income countries as El Niño’s effects can last up to ten years after the ebb. In this way, people might be able to avert the suffering that would otherwise meet them.
Economic Losses Due to El Niño
Previous calculations of El Niño economic losses only took into account damages during the El Niño years. However, a new research study shows that the effects of El Niño can last up to a decade after the end of the warm waters. Instead of technological innovation, governments end up using funds to rebuild infrastructure. “So you get this sort of legacy of El Niño in depressed economic growth,” says Christopher Callahan, lead author of the new study. The new research found greater economic losses relative to what had been previously considered.
Managing Climate Change Through Hardening Infrastructure
Climate change has made heat waves, wildfires, droughts, and rainfall more intense. El Niño offers governments the chance to shore up their preparations for extreme weather. “These things like hardening your infrastructure and investing in wildfire management are going to be necessary,” says Callahan. “And so we think there’s really sort of a win-win here.”
FAQs
1. What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climatic event marked by the warming of Pacific Ocean waters having far-reaching effects on global weather conditions.
2. Is El Niño only experienced in tropical regions?
No. Although its effects are concentrated in the tropics, other areas like the US also experience the impact.
3. Which parts of the US are most affected by El Niño?
The southwestern parts of the United States will receive more rainfall, while the northern parts will get warmer.
4. Why are low-income countries more vulnerable to El Niño?
Agriculture vulnerable to rainfall changes contributes more to the GDP of low-income nations. Subsistence farmers are most at risk of losing their livelihood and not being able to feed their families, especially in the absence of irrigation systems.
5. How can governments mitigate the impact of El Niño on vulnerable populations?
Governments need to start planning international aid to low-income countries as El Niño’s effects can last up to ten years after the end of the warm waters. This will avert the suffering that would otherwise meet vulnerable populations.
6. What preparations can governments make to manage the effects of El Niño?
Governments can harden infrastructure and invest in wildfire management to manage the effects of El Niño.
7. How long do the effects of El Niño last?
El Niño’s effects can last up to a decade after the end of warm waters.
8. How does El Niño affect climate change?
El Niño offers governments the chance to shore up their preparations for extreme weather, thereby mitigating the effects of climate change.
9. Are there any safeguards in place to protect farmers from El Niño’s effects?
The US, for example, has an extensive policy complex to protect farmers when they are affected due to weather shocks.
10. Is it possible to determine with certainty how El Niño will affect weather conditions?
No. Scientists cannot yet say when El Niño will set in, or how severe it will end up being. It is impossible to predict with certainty how rainfall might change in any given country a year from now.
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